The upcoming 2010 elections present us with the twin challenge of ensuring that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s illegitimate regime will not be extended or given a new lease on life and that whatever new government takes over will be challenged to respond to the people’s demand for meaningful reforms. The 2010 elections is supposedly the last under the Arroyo administration and the first using the Automated Election System (AES).

As the last elections before Mrs. Arroyo’s term expires on June 30, 2010, the regime has a lot riding on this electoral exercise. The results of the election may see Mrs. Arroyo remaining in power through some vile scheme or stepping down but protected or accommodated by the next administration. Whatever the scenario may be, the Arroyo camp would want the results to be favorable to its interests.

As the first national elections to be automated, there is increasing uncertainty now over the viability of the system given the delays in implementation and the lack of safeguards in place. With the long history of fraud and manipulation involving the COMELEC and other government agencies geared to favor the incumbent regime, the concerns about the automated elections are serious and require action.

Areas of Concern:

1. Safeguards and uncertainties in the AES

Many observers and experts have pointed out that the COMELEC and Smartmatic-TIM appear ill-prepared to carry out full elections automation. No less than the COMELEC chair Jose Melo has conceded that some 30-40% of the elections will still be done manually due to a number of factors. And even if majority of the polling centers are automated, numerous issues remain as to whether safeguards against systematic fraud — either through internal rigging or external hacking – are in place. There are outstanding issues such as the source code review of the software that will be used, the on-time delivery of the PCOS machines, the telecommunications infrastructure for the safe transmission of data as well as the readiness of COMELEC personnel and the voting public for automated polls.  With the likelihood of manual elections, at least in part, we can expect the same old fraud operators inside and outside the COMELEC to again subvert the people’s will.

The prospect of having a failure of elections is frighteningly real.

2. Political repression and warlordism. The recent Maguindanao Massacre highlighted in such a condemnable manner the role of government-abetted warlordism in violating the right to life and in destroying any kind of democratic exercise, including elections, in many of the areas of the country.  With the notorious Norberto Gonzales at the helm of the Defense Department and with the specter of failed elections still present, political repression will certainly be among the problems that we will be confronted with during the election period. This would include the use of the military, paramilitary, and police forces to influence the outcome of the polls as in the 2004 and 2007 elections. The role of the AFP in the elections should be carefully monitored.   In the past, militarization in both rural and urban areas was used against opponents of the Arroyo regime. There were also numerous incidents of extrajudicial killing, enforced disappearance, harassment and coercion of voters and other forms of human rights violations throughout the country during the campaign period up until election day.

3. Use by the incumbent of government resources

We must monitor and expose the use by the incumbent of the vast resources of government to favor their vested political interests. Public funds are often diverted to favor the election bids of incumbent officials or their favored candidates. The vast amounts of money earmarked for relief and rehabilitation efforts after typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng is one fund that those in power could utilize to their unfair advantage.  The huge campaign spending, bribery and other similar actions also undermine the credibility of the elections and rightly so. This becomes even more detestable in light of the government’s huge budget deficit and the need to prioritize rehabilitation of calamity-stricken areas.

4. Maneuvers to keep Mrs. Arroyo and her cohorts in power

We must be alert to all attempts of the regime to remain in power beyond June 2010.  Failure of elections can lead to a de facto extension of the term of Mrs. Arroyo.  Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales is a vocal advocate of a “transitional revolutionary government” with Mrs. Arroyo at the helm, a scenario that looms should there be a failure of elections, partial or complete, that will prevent the proclamation of winning candidates at the national level.  We must be vigilant against the declaration of a false “state of emergency” or martial law — even if localized — as this could be taken advantage of for purposes of electoral fraud and other hidden political agendas.

5. Engagement of the COMELEC in other areas

In the past, we were able to call attention to the COMELEC’s approval of Malacañang created pseudo-partylist groups, the poll body’s inability to implement RA 9369 as well as anomalies in the printing of election materials.  This year, we have seen the questionable delisting and disqualification of several partylist groups by the COMELEC. Early campaigning has also been an issue that the COMELEC has been unable to address.  There is also the issue of unfair advantage of moneyed or well-connected candidates using the mass media to campaign prematurely especially in light of recent Supreme Court ruling reversing their decision strictly banning paid ads and other forms of campaigning before the campaign period.

Our role: Kontra Daya2010

1.       Engage the COMELEC and other relevant agencies on major policies in the elections. We must support calls for optimum safeguards in the AES. We must oppose the policies and actuations of the COMELEC that undermine clean, honest and credible elections.

2.       Help unite various forces opposed to electoral fraud. We must reach out to a broad array of forces, like-minded groups and individuals who are interested in keeping the 2010 polls fraud-free.

3.       Educate the people about the vulnerabilities of the AES, keep them vigilant and prepare them for direct action against fraud, failure of elections etc. Public education and mobilization remain the best defense against fraud. We must rely on the people to thwart fraud and other schemes that undermine the elections.

4.       Expose and fight against political repression, armed coercion and other human rights violations during the election period.

5.       Support and participate in the People’s International Observers Mission as a major component of the campaign against electoral fraud and violence.